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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Members,
</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Garamond",serif">The
<span style="color:black">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast</span> C<span style="color:black">enter (LMRFC) released the update below
</span>today ahead of high river <span style="color:black">stage</span>s forecast<span style="color:black">s for the Carrollton Gage to crest at 1</span>6<span style="color:black">.5</span> feet or higher over the next few weeks. The LMRFC provided the<span style="color:black">
quoted text </span>in bold <span style="color:black">below </span>along <span style="color:black">
with </span>the <span style="color:black">attachment </span>to <span style="color:black">
update</span> industry on the high-water levels <span style="color:black">and </span>
the <span style="color:black">updated river </span>stage<span style="color:black"> predictions</span> from Cairo (IL) to
<span style="color:black">New Orleans</span> (LA).<b> </b></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><b><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">“</span></b><b><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Cairo, IL is forecast to crest at 35.0 ft on May 25. Following that long range outlooks show additional fluctuations,
but below this level. The fluctuations are within seasonal ranges below flood stage and may postpone low flow for the next month or so.</span></b><b><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Minor rises from this rise at Cairo, IL may make it to Memphis with some attenuation. Below that on the Middle and Lower
Mississippi we anticipate a slowing of the current recession, but not a turnaround.</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Stages on the Lower Mississippi River will remain elevated well into June.<br>
<br>
</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">We are also seeing falls on the Atchafalaya at Simmesport down to Morgan City. Other locations on the lower Boeuf and
Tensas Rivers in the Backwater area are also showing slow falls now. </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">We will be recovering our system from a major install later this week, but do not anticipate much change to the forecast
over the next week. We will send out one more update next week as we see the river continue to drop below lower thresholds</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">.”<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"> </span></b><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.8pt"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">The supporting information below was prepared by the Big River Coalition:</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.8pt"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">The </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Carrolton Gage (New Orleans)</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121"> reading
at 1</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">3<span style="color:#212121">00 hours today was</span><span style="color:black"> 1</span>3.18
<span style="color:#212121">feet </span><span style="color:black">with a </span><span style="color:#212121">24-hour change </span><span style="color:black">of</span><span style="color:#212121"> </span>-<span style="color:#212121"> 0.</span>13
<span style="color:#212121">feet.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.8pt"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Predictions (28-Day Forecast)
for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts that stages will</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif"> continue
<span style="color:black">a slow </span>extended <span style="color:black">fall</span>, the forecast will remain at 11.7 feet from May 29 to June 5 before resuming a slow fall to<span style="color:black">to
</span>10.3 feet on June 17 (2025). </span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.8pt"><b><u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">*Please remember the extended forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">.</span></u></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:13.8pt"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black;background:white">The predictive map below is the forecast for the 168-hour (7 Days) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
(QPF). </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:13.8pt"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black;background:white"> “Forecasters at the WPC and its predecessor organizations have been making Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasts since 1960. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, or QPFs, depict the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall in a defined period of time. In the case of snow or ice, QPF represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation
is melted. Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, and for this reason QPFs issued by the WPC are defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches.” </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:13.8pt"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">The </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">168</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">-hour </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">QPF </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">predictive
precipitation map below is reproduced from the National Weather Service and indicate</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif"> a large area of precipitation expected to fall across the
<span style="color:#212121">Mississippi River and</span><span style="color:black"> Ohio
</span><span style="color:#212121">River Basins</span><span style="color:black">.</span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:16.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black;background:yellow">168-HOUR QPF:</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><img width="800" height="561" style="width:8.3333in;height:5.8437in" id="Picture_x0020_3" src="cid:image001.gif@01DBC998.34CEC660"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.8pt"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">The graph</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">s</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">below
are today’s 2- and 16-Day River </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) issued by the National Weather Service with </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">the
<span style="color:#212121">forecast for</span> the Carrollton Gage (<span style="color:#212121">New Orleans</span>,
<span style="color:#212121">LA). </span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:13.8pt"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"> </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">“</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">The
graphs below </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">represent </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">the </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">experimental
product to account for the complexity of accurately predicting long-range precipitation</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121"> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">for 2 days
(top) and 16 days (bottom) and was developed within the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) computer model and highlights </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121">the </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">QPF
for river stage predictions correlated with the anticipated impact of the forecasted level of precipitation. The QPF also includes a shaded area to indicate uncertainty within forecast both the precipitation and river stage are based on historical models.”</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#212121"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:16.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black;background:yellow">NEW ORLEANS QPF:</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><img width="751" height="1010" style="width:7.8229in;height:10.5208in" id="Picture_x0020_4" src="cid:image002.png@01DBC998.34CEC660" alt="NORL1_67_28d_forecast_error_plot.png"><span style="color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Garamond",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">With You,</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:"SAVOYE LET PLAIN\:1\.0";color:#0700FF">Sean</span><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Sean M. Duffy, Sr.</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Executive Director</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Standing By Channel: (504) 338-3165</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"> </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black">Big River Coalition</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:black"><a href="http://bigrivercoalition.org/" title="http://bigrivercoalition.org/"><span style="color:#0000E9">http://bigrivercoalition.org</span></a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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