[Louisianadelegation] LMRFC Update for the Ohio & Miss Rivers 52025

[Sean Duffy]

Members,
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released the update below today ahead of high river stages forecasts for the Carrollton Gage to crest at 16.5 feet or higher over the next few weeks. The LMRFC provided the quoted text in bold below along with the attachment to update industry on the high-water levels and the updated river stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to New Orleans (LA).

“Cairo, IL is forecast to crest at 35.0 ft on May 25. Following that long range outlooks show additional fluctuations, but below this level. The fluctuations are within seasonal ranges below flood stage and may postpone low flow for the next month or so.

Minor rises from this rise at Cairo, IL may make it to Memphis with some attenuation. Below that on the Middle and Lower Mississippi we anticipate a slowing of the current recession, but not a turnaround.

Stages on the Lower Mississippi River will remain elevated well into June.

We are also seeing falls on the Atchafalaya at Simmesport down to Morgan City. Other locations on the lower Boeuf and Tensas Rivers in the Backwater area are also showing slow falls now.

We will be recovering our system from a major install later this week, but do not anticipate much change to the forecast over the next week. We will send out one more update next week as we see the river continue to drop below lower thresholds.”

The supporting information below was prepared by the Big River Coalition:
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1300 hours today was 13.18 feet with a 24-hour change of - 0.13 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Predictions (28-Day Forecast) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts that stages will continue a slow extended fall, the forecast will remain at 11.7 feet from May 29 to June 5 before resuming a slow fall toto 10.3 feet on June 17 (2025).
*Please remember the extended forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
The predictive map below is the forecast for the 168-hour (7 Days) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF).
 “Forecasters at the WPC and its predecessor organizations have been making Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts since 1960. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, or QPFs, depict the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall in a defined period of time. In the case of snow or ice, QPF represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted. Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, and for this reason QPFs issued by the WPC are defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches.”
The 168-hour QPF predictive precipitation map below is reproduced from the National Weather Service and indicate a large area of precipitation expected to fall across the Mississippi River and Ohio River Basins.
168-HOUR QPF:
[cid:image001.gif at 01DBC998.34CEC660]
The graphs below are today’s 2- and 16-Day River Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) issued by the National Weather Service with the forecast for the Carrollton Gage (New Orleans, LA).
 “The graphs below represent the experimental product to account for the complexity of accurately predicting long-range precipitation for 2 days (top) and 16 days (bottom) and was developed within the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) computer model and highlights the QPF for river stage predictions correlated with the anticipated impact of the forecasted level of precipitation. The QPF also includes a shaded area to indicate uncertainty within forecast both the precipitation and river stage are based on historical models.”
NEW ORLEANS QPF:
[NORL1_67_28d_forecast_error_plot.png]

With You,
Sean
Sean M. Duffy, Sr.
Executive Director

Standing By Channel: (504) 338-3165

Big River Coalition
http://bigrivercoalition.org<http://bigrivercoalition.org/>

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